La Niña Forecast: Heavy Snow Ahead; Dr. Judith Curry On 'Scientific Consensus'; "A Vaccine-Style Approach To Tackle Carbon Emissions"; + Space Weather Lull

"There’s no agreement as to whether warming is even dangerous."

La Niña Forecast: Heavy Snow Ahead

It may only be July but thoughts are turning to the Northern Hemisphere winter, to the forecast La Niña and the cold and snow said ENSO pattern brings.

The 2022-23 winter, characterized by record-breaking snow totals and extended ski seasons, occurred during the previous La Niña. That winter capped a rare "triple-dipper" La Niña in fact, spanning three consecutive seasons from 2020 to 2023.

NOAA forecasts say another La Niña is likely on the cards during the 2024-25 winter, making for the fourth in the last five years and so contradicting the climate models that decreed 'global warming would favor more frequent El Niño events'.

Research has claimed, and continues to claim, that greenhouse warming will increase the frequency and intensity of El Niño events. A 2018 study published in Nature Climate Change projects that extreme El Niño events could become twice as frequent as temperatures rise. Similarly, a 2022 study from the University of Exeter foresees a global warming-fueled increase in the frequency of El Niño events by 2040.

These predictions are based on climate models that simulate the impact of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) indicate a robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events under global warming scenarios​.

But these models have failed, evidenced by the planet set to experience its fourth La Niña winter out of the past five.



CLIMATE MODELS GOT IT WRONG, EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS COOLING

It may be summer, but skiers are already hopeful of the season to come.

As per skimag.com, significant snowfall should be the theme this winter, with snowy conditions hitting the likes of Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, and northern Colorado in the west; and Maine, northern Vermont, and northern New Hampshire in the east.

While NOAA's official preseason report isn't due until August, OpenSnow COO and Meteorologist Sam Collentine provided a preview, stating, "La Niña tends to favor average to above-average snowfall in much of the western U.S. during significant events."

Although not a guarantee, this developing La Nina is hinting at another winter of heavy, record-breaking snow. Prepare. Meteorologists underestimated the historic totals during the 2022-23 season. Heed the warnings.

"A Vaccine-Style Approach To Tackle Carbon Emissions"

Sir Patrick Vallance, the face of the UK’s stringent COVID-19 lockdowns and mandated vaccine roll-out, has just been appointed Minister of State for Science, Research and Innovation.