Snow In Montana; Cool Summer Reduces UK Butterfly Numbers; Antarctica Nears -112F; + La Niña Odds Increased in NOAA's Latest Update

Uncertainty remains, but La Niña is coming. The only question is when?

Snow In Montana

Montana faced a dramatic swing overnight Tuesday, with temperatures plunging 38F in just 24 hours. The city of Baker went from a daily record 95F on Tuesday to an unusually-nippy 57F by Wednesday.

This sudden cold front brought an early taste of winter to the state, dropping notable snow to the higher elevations. The Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains west of Baker received 8 inches, with lower areas still picking up an inch or two.

A winter storm warning remains in effect for the mountains, with additional snow and wind gusts of 50 mph expected. The likes of Baker, however, are forecast to warm a little — to perhaps 70F on Thursday.

Pockets of 'blue' will persist in the West for the rest of the month. Then come October, it will be Central and Eastern states chilling. Below is what the GFS has in store as the calendar flips to October (a forecast a long ways out, but one certainly worth monitoring):

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Oct 1 - Oct 2 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Cool Summer Reduces UK Butterfly Numbers

Butterfly numbers in the UK have plummeted to record lows, and predictably, conservationists have declared a "butterfly emergency."

The 2024 Big Butterfly Count averaged just seven butterflies per 15-minute survey. This is "the lowest since records began," reports the likes of the Guardian—though it's worth pointing out that the annual count only began in 2010.

Environmentalists argue that pesticides, particularly neonicotinoids, are the root cause of the decline, and while I agree they should be banned, the real driver behind this year’s decline wasn’t pesticides—there hasn’t been an increase in their use—it was the unusually cold, wet summer, the UK’s coldest since 2015.