Weather Is Weather, Until It's Politically Useful; Record Cold Hits The Mid-Atlantic; + The RCP8.5 Walkback Spreads

Western Europe is hot because Western Europe is under a strong blocking high. In other words: weather.

Weather Is Weather, Until It’s Politically Useful

Western Europe is hot because Western Europe is under a strong blocking high.

A heat dome has built across the west of the continent, with high pressure, clear skies and sinking air driving temperatures well above average. Spain, Portugal, France and the UK are seeing the core of the heat, with parts of Iberia reaching the mid-to-high 30sC (mid-to-upper 90sF) and the UK forecast pushing into the low 30sC (upper 80sF to low 90sF).

Under a strong upper-level ridge, air descends, compresses, warms and dries. Cloud formation is suppressed. Rainfall shuts down. Sunshine dominates. Because the pattern is blocked, the same air mass sits over the same region for several days instead of being swept away by the usual Atlantic flow.

In other words: weather.

Much of May has been below average across Europe, including the UK where (to the 20th) the month was on par with the Mays of 1696, 1681, 1680, 1676, and 1675 before the pattern flipped. Then the jet stream shifted, high pressure built, and the first serious warm spell of the season arrived.

For ordinary people, that means sun, barbecues, pools, beaches, and pub gardens.

For the climate industry, it means copy-paste panic.